HSRP-461

Each side overestimates the other's support for political violence, and the real figures lower its own.

Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.

(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)

1. Header

Number
HSRP-461
Category
Civilizational Analysis
Grade
PROBABLE
Status
ACTIVE
Entry form
Full
First entered
Not recorded — added to the register in supplement 027
Last revised
2026-10-13
Register entry
https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes#HSRP-461

2. The claim, in full

Each side overestimates the other's support for political violence, and the real figures lower its own.

Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY › Hidden dissent and the sudden flip. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-12.

3. What it rests on

No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.

4. Sources

No source is linked to this observation in the register.

5. Counter-evidence

No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-13. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.

6. Why this grade

The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.

The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.

7. Correction history

2026-10-13
BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM — wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own.
2026-10-13
BATCH 5 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from OTHER NAMES, WHO BUILDS THE HIVE, WHERE THE EVIDENCE STANDS or WHAT FOLLOWS — wording unchanged. The page's reference numbers were converted to SRC numbers at extraction.

8. Related observations

9. Where this appears on the site

Content pages that cite this observation inline:

10. Open questions

Not yet recorded for this observation.

11. Machine block

The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:

{
  "grade": "PROBABLE",
  "status": "ACTIVE",
  "category": "CIV",
  "title": "Each side overestimates the other's support for political violence, and the real figures lower its own.",
  "entry_form": "full",
  "note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY › Hidden dissent and the sudden flip. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-12.",
  "n": 461,
  "ref": "HSRP-461",
  "cited_by": [],
  "related": [
    "HSRP-426",
    "HSRP-444",
    "HSRP-459",
    "HSRP-460",
    "HSRP-462",
    "HSRP-509",
    "HSRP-556",
    "HSRP-572",
    "HSRP-575",
    "HSRP-577",
    "HSRP-579",
    "HSRP-599",
    "HSRP-603"
  ],
  "category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
  "supplement": "027",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "statement": "Each side also misreads the other (US AND THEM). In four studies, Democrats and Republicans alike overestimated the other side's support for political violence by 245 to 442%; shown the real figures, their own support fell by about a third and stayed lower a month later [SRC-823]. If surveys overstate actual support, the misreading is larger still [SRC-824]."
    },
    {
      "statement": "Correcting a false picture moves people too: Americans in both parties backed political violence less once they learned how little the other side backed it [SRC-823]."
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "event": "BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM",
      "reason": "wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "event": "BATCH 5 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from OTHER NAMES, WHO BUILDS THE HIVE, WHERE THE EVIDENCE STANDS or WHAT FOLLOWS",
      "reason": "wording unchanged. The page's reference numbers were converted to SRC numbers at extraction."
    }
  ],
  "appearances": [
    "/the-hive-mind",
    "/the-hive-mind"
  ],
  "missing_fields": [
    "entered",
    "source for an authored item",
    "source for an authored item",
    "intervals",
    "sources",
    "counter_evidence",
    "grade_rationale",
    "relation to HSRP-426",
    "relation to HSRP-444",
    "relation to HSRP-459",
    "relation to HSRP-460",
    "relation to HSRP-462",
    "relation to HSRP-509",
    "relation to HSRP-556",
    "relation to HSRP-572",
    "relation to HSRP-575",
    "relation to HSRP-577",
    "relation to HSRP-579",
    "relation to HSRP-599",
    "relation to HSRP-603",
    "open_questions"
  ]
}
https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes.json

Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-13). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 21 fields not yet recorded.

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