HSRP-460

Fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors keeps people quiet on every side; the spiral of silence is real but small.

Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.

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1. Header

Number: HSRP-460
Category: Civilizational Analysis
Grade: PROBABLE
Status: ACTIVE
Entry form: Full
First entered: Not recorded — added to the register in supplement 027
Last revised: 2026-10-13
Register entry: https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes#HSRP-460

2. The claim, in full

Fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors keeps people quiet on every side; the spiral of silence is real but small.

Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY › Hidden dissent and the sudden flip. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-11.

3. What it rests on

The cost of speaking is felt close to home. The share of Americans who do not feel free to speak has tripled since the McCarthy era; in 2020 over four in ten self-censored, with no clear gap between Republicans and Democrats, mainly for fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors [SRC-820]. Across 66 studies, feeling outnumbered lowers willingness to speak a little (r = .10), more in the close circle (r = .34), and no less online: Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's "spiral of silence", real but small [SRC-821] [SRC-822].

Source: none linked in the register

No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.

4. Sources

No source is linked to this observation in the register.

5. Counter-evidence

No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-13. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.

6. Why this grade

The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.

The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.

7. Correction history

2026-10-13: BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM — wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own.

8. Related observations

HSRP-459 · PROBABLE · A body's public face is more uniform than its members: pluralistic ignorance and preference falsification keep a line standing and let it fall suddenly when the gap shows.
Relation: not recorded
HSRP-461 · PROBABLE · Each side overestimates the other's support for political violence, and the real figures lower its own.
Relation: not recorded
HSRP-462 · WORKING · Doubters enforce a line in public to look sincere; a falsified consensus ends when the gap becomes common knowledge.
Relation: not recorded

9. Where this appears on the site

Content pages that cite this observation inline:

The Programmable Hive Mind
“Fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors keeps people quiet on every side; the spiral of silence is real but small — PROBABLE”

10. Open questions

Not yet recorded for this observation.

11. Machine block

The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:

{
  "grade": "PROBABLE",
  "status": "ACTIVE",
  "category": "CIV",
  "title": "Fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors keeps people quiet on every side; the spiral of silence is real but small.",
  "entry_form": "full",
  "note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY › Hidden dissent and the sudden flip. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-11.",
  "n": 460,
  "ref": "HSRP-460",
  "cited_by": [],
  "related": [
    "HSRP-459",
    "HSRP-461",
    "HSRP-462"
  ],
  "category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
  "supplement": "027",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "statement": "The cost of speaking is felt close to home. The share of Americans who do not feel free to speak has tripled since the McCarthy era; in 2020 over four in ten self-censored, with no clear gap between Republicans and Democrats, mainly for fear of being cut off from friends, family and neighbors [SRC-820]. Across 66 studies, feeling outnumbered lowers willingness to speak a little (r = .10), more in the close circle (r = .34), and no less online: Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's \"spiral of silence\", real but small [SRC-821] [SRC-822]."
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-13",
      "event": "BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM",
      "reason": "wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own."
    }
  ],
  "appearances": [
    "/the-hive-mind"
  ],
  "missing_fields": [
    "entered",
    "source for an authored item",
    "intervals",
    "sources",
    "counter_evidence",
    "grade_rationale",
    "relation to HSRP-459",
    "relation to HSRP-461",
    "relation to HSRP-462",
    "open_questions"
  ]
}

https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes.json

Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-13). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 10 fields not yet recorded.