HSRP-446
A cue from the source a hive trusts moves members more than a persuasive message does, even against their earlier views and in either direction.
Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.
(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)
1. Header
2. The claim, in full
A cue from the source a hive trusts moves members more than a persuasive message does, even against their earlier views and in either direction.
Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF › How far "mostly very difficult to move" holds. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-4.
3. What it rests on
-
A cue from the source a hive trusts can move members more than a persuasive message does [SRC-786], even against their own earlier views [SRC-787]. This is what this project calls the programmable hive HSRP-317 (HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY).
Source: none linked in the register -
Parties. In one survey experiment, Republican identifiers took Trump's stated position "in either a liberal or conservative direction" [SRC-803]; leaders of both parties moved their followers in the test above [SRC-786]; and when a Danish party reversed course on welfare, its supporters followed "even when the new position went against citizens' previously held views" [SRC-787].
Source: none linked in the register
No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.
4. Sources
No source is linked to this observation in the register.
5. Counter-evidence
No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-13. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.
6. Why this grade
The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.
The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.
7. Correction history
8. Related observations
- HSRP-317 · PROBABLE · Programmable PV and Narrative-Synchronized PV. Where identity fusion with an authority source replaces independent belief formation, new beliefs enter the identity layer directly, bypassing cementing — producing maximum-intensity defence of positions adopted days earlier with no connective tissue between successive positions.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-330 · ESTABLISHED · The mechanism is not partisan, and the evidence for that is stronger and more specific than a symmetry claim. An adversarial collaboration of researchers from three opposing camps, with an independent moderator conducting the analyses, catalogued 44 measures of rigidity and retained the single one all adversaries accepted as unconfounded: evidence-based belief updating. Across 6,181 preregistered participants, general and social conservatism predicted less updating at |b| ~ .05, below the threshold for a small effect; economic conservatism predicted nothing; political extremity at both poles predicted slightly more than direction; moderates were least rigid; and 54-68% of all participants updated toward the evidence in every domain tested. The adversaries' agreed conclusion: the practical utility of ideology as a predictor of rigidity is questionable, and the field should examine when and where rather than who. A separate meta-analysis (N = 187,612) found the conservatism-rigidity association tremendously heterogeneous, robust for social but not economic conservatism, absent outside the United States for economic conservatism, and inflated in prior literature by nonrepresentative sampling, criterion contamination and US-weighting. What survives of the asymmetry: the far right is the most rigid single group; left-wing authoritarians score LOWER than right-wing authoritarians on dogmatism and cognitive rigidity, though they score higher on behavioural aggression and correlate strongly with participation in political violence. THIS FRAMEWORK'S READING, stated as its own: a weak domain-general effect alongside strong context-specific effects is what a content-neutral, identity-triggered mechanism predicts. If the condition were a property of one political disposition it would be a trait and a general test would find it readily. The adversaries independently recommend looking for the robust effects in narrow contexts — where the information concerns a hot-button issue for a particular group — which is identity-fusion specificity under another name. KAHAN REATTRIBUTION, added 2026-09-24: this null is older than the 2025 adversarial collaboration. Kahan reported it in 2013 (SRC-437), generating both observational and experimental data "inconsistent with the hypothesis that political conservatism is distinctively associated with either unreflective thinking or motivated reasoning" — verified verbatim from that paper's abstract.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-414 · PROBABLE · THE TWO HIVE MINDS: party loyalty in the United States works as a social identity, and voters largely follow it. Rests on: the publisher's description of Achen and Bartels, Democracy for Realists (2016) (voters choose "on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues"; the book itself not opened); Finkel and fourteen co-authors, Science 370 (2020) (political sectarianism defined at p. 533; "cold feelings toward the out-party now exceed warm feelings toward the in-party", p. 533; a majority-party candidate "could get elected despite openly violating democratic principles", p. 535, reporting Graham and Svolik 2020, not opened); Rathje, Van Bavel and van der Linden, PNAS 2021 (each out-group term raised the odds of a post being shared by 67%, from the abstract, which gives n = 2,730,215; observational; sharing, not votes). Washington's Farewell Address (1796) is quoted as a text, the two fragments being the opening and closing words of one sentence. Against, carried on the page: Druckman, Green and Iyengar (2023) found "scant evidence of a direct link between affective polarization and democratic backsliding in the U.S." That the two party hive minds are steered by design is not yet found, and it is not yet known whether it will be found; what is found is an incentive that rewards hostility. The model of the hive mind is this site's own, set out on /the-hive-mind, whose section 9 is "THE TWO-PARTY ARCHITECTURE", and on /psycho-vulgarism.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-444 · PROBABLE · Arguments from outside barely move a hive; a nonjudgmental exchange of personal stories moved attitudes slightly but lastingly, in the one direction tested.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-445 · PROBABLE · Hives tend to update as one body: a tendency, not a law. Not every member moves, evidence still moves them, and rival bodies shown the same evidence move in parallel.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-447 · WORKING · A hive is hard to move by argument from outside, moved a little by evidence, and moved readily by its own trusted cues.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-448 · WORKING · Whoever holds a hive's trusted source can turn it without persuading its members one by one; the defense shields the line from outsiders and leaves it open to the center. That is how the mechanism serves obedience.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-453 · PROBABLE · Norms, network spread and party cues, the chain's parts, are each studied on their own.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-455 · PROBABLE · With a center, most members follow a reset and refusers leave; without one, a body splits.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-456 · PROBABLE · Institutions on both sides of the gender question turned on political and legal cues rather than new evidence.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-519 · PROBABLE · When a question cuts across parties, as gender did in Spain, Scotland and several US states, the hive forms around the question, in camps drawn from more than one party.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-533 · PROBABLE · From 1310 to 1687 seven Western condemnations, Catholic and Protestant, named an inner teaching as the offense where it claimed freedom from the office's means; mystics within the sacraments were made saints.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-534 · PROBABLE · Elsewhere an inner doctrine was named more often than it decided, with faction, succession or a crisis at the center at work too.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-539 · WORKING · What the record supports is interest without design: an office that runs the outer form gains a stake in keeping it, planned or not.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-594 · WORKING · Offices of opposed creeds made the same moves, licensing one body, closing the rest and condemning teaching that went around the office, from Rome's Senate in 186 BC to an Ottoman sultan and the Turkish republic; one designing class across history is not yet found; not yet known whether it will be found.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-595 · WORKING · The research on avoiding unwelcome information explains avoidance by its expected cost, supporting this page's mechanism, not a builder behind it.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-596 · WORKING · Both poles close: the suppressed inner traditions and the offices that suppressed them both closed themselves off and appealed to a founding beyond review, and the difference lay in power and its outcomes.Relation: not recorded
9. Where this appears on the site
Content pages that cite this observation inline:
- The Programmable Hive Mind“A cue from the source a hive trusts moves members more than a persuasive message, even against their earlier views — PROBABLE”
- The Programmable Hive Mind“Party followers take their leader's stated position in either direction — PROBABLE”
- The Programmable Hive Mind“In both US parties, and in Denmark, followers moved to their leader's or party's stated position, in either direction — PROBABLE”
- The Programmable Hive Mind“A hive needs no designer: conformity, trusted cues and shared incentives are enough, and interest can do the work credited to design — assembly through conformity and cues PROBABLE”
10. Open questions
Not yet recorded for this observation.
11. Machine block
The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:
{
"grade": "PROBABLE",
"status": "ACTIVE",
"category": "CIV",
"title": "A cue from the source a hive trusts moves members more than a persuasive message does, even against their earlier views and in either direction.",
"entry_form": "full",
"note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF › How far \"mostly very difficult to move\" holds. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1b-4.",
"n": 446,
"ref": "HSRP-446",
"cited_by": [],
"related": [
"HSRP-317",
"HSRP-330",
"HSRP-414",
"HSRP-444",
"HSRP-445",
"HSRP-447",
"HSRP-448",
"HSRP-453",
"HSRP-455",
"HSRP-456",
"HSRP-519",
"HSRP-533",
"HSRP-534",
"HSRP-539",
"HSRP-594",
"HSRP-595",
"HSRP-596"
],
"category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
"supplement": "027",
"evidence": [
{
"statement": "A cue from the source a hive trusts can move members more than a persuasive message does [SRC-786], even against their own earlier views [SRC-787]. This is what this project calls the programmable hive HSRP-317 (HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY)."
},
{
"statement": "Parties. In one survey experiment, Republican identifiers took Trump's stated position \"in either a liberal or conservative direction\" [SRC-803]; leaders of both parties moved their followers in the test above [SRC-786]; and when a Danish party reversed course on welfare, its supporters followed \"even when the new position went against citizens' previously held views\" [SRC-787]."
}
],
"history": [
{
"date": "2026-10-13",
"event": "BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM",
"reason": "wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own."
},
{
"date": "2026-10-13",
"event": "BATCH 3 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from WHERE YOU'LL FIND IT, CULTS, THE PARTY HIVE MIND or THE RELIGIOUS HIVE MIND",
"reason": "wording unchanged. The page's reference numbers were converted to SRC numbers at extraction."
},
{
"date": "2026-10-13",
"event": "BATCH 5 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from OTHER NAMES, WHO BUILDS THE HIVE, WHERE THE EVIDENCE STANDS or WHAT FOLLOWS",
"reason": "wording unchanged. The page's reference numbers were converted to SRC numbers at extraction."
}
],
"appearances": [
"/the-hive-mind",
"/the-hive-mind",
"/the-hive-mind",
"/the-hive-mind"
],
"missing_fields": [
"entered",
"source for an authored item",
"source for an authored item",
"intervals",
"sources",
"counter_evidence",
"grade_rationale",
"relation to HSRP-317",
"relation to HSRP-330",
"relation to HSRP-414",
"relation to HSRP-444",
"relation to HSRP-445",
"relation to HSRP-447",
"relation to HSRP-448",
"relation to HSRP-453",
"relation to HSRP-455",
"relation to HSRP-456",
"relation to HSRP-519",
"relation to HSRP-533",
"relation to HSRP-534",
"relation to HSRP-539",
"relation to HSRP-594",
"relation to HSRP-595",
"relation to HSRP-596",
"open_questions"
]
}Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-13). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 25 fields not yet recorded.