HSRP-435
Groupthink's causal model weakly supported
Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.
(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)
1. Header
2. The claim, in full
Groupthink's causal model weakly supported
Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Where the idea comes from. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-14.
This is a summary-only entry. The text above is the register summary, not the full statement of the claim.
3. What it rests on
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"Groupthink", coined by William H. Whyte (1952) and modeled by Irving Janis (1972), is narrower: a close-knit group deciding badly [SRC-775] [SRC-776]. Its symptoms, such as pressure on dissenters and an illusion of unanimity, describe hives well. Its causal model was found weakly supported, so /the-hive-mind uses the symptoms as description only [SRC-777].
No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.
4. Sources
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SRC-775 · PRIORITY · Groupthink — Whyte, William H., Jr., Fortune 45 (March) (1952)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Access status not recordedEntered 2026-10-12 with BATCH 1 of the /the-hive-mind slimming, from that page's SOURCES entry [28]. https://fortune.com/2012/07/22/groupthink-fortune-1952 The coinage; the model is Janis (1972), a separate work.
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SRC-776 · PRIORITY · Victims of Groupthink — Janis, Irving L. (Boston: Houghton Mifflin; 2nd ed., Groupthink, 1982) (1972)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Access status not recordedEntered 2026-10-12 with BATCH 1 of the /the-hive-mind slimming, from that page's SOURCES entry [29]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink
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SRC-777 · PRIORITY · Alive and well after 25 years: A review of groupthink research — Esser, James K., Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 73(2-3):116-141 (1998)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Access status not recordedEntered 2026-10-12 with BATCH 1 of the /the-hive-mind slimming, from that page's SOURCES entry [30]. NOT YET VERIFIED AT SOURCE. Carried from the /the-hive-mind SOURCES list, which flags it "Not yet verified." https://ideas.repec.org/r/eee/jobhdp/v73y1998i2-3p116-141.html The author probe returned SRC-487 and SRC-488 on "Esser" as a substring of "Juan-Tresserras" - a surname-substring artefact, not a candidate.
5. Counter-evidence
No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-12. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.
6. Why this grade
The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.
The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.
7. Correction history
8. Related observations
- HSRP-434 · ESTABLISHED · There is no group mind, and anonymity tightens a group's normsRelation: not recorded
9. Where this appears on the site
Content pages that cite this observation inline:
- The Programmable Hive Mind“Groupthink's causal model weakly supported — PROBABLE”
Pages citing a source this observation rests on: /the-hive-mind.
10. Open questions
Not yet recorded for this observation.
11. Machine block
The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:
{
"grade": "PROBABLE",
"status": "ACTIVE",
"category": "CIV",
"title": "Groupthink's causal model weakly supported",
"entry_form": "summary",
"note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Where the idea comes from. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-14.",
"n": 435,
"ref": "HSRP-435",
"cited_by": [
"SRC-775",
"SRC-776",
"SRC-777"
],
"related": [
"HSRP-434"
],
"category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
"supplement": "027",
"evidence": [
{
"statement": "\"Groupthink\", coined by William H. Whyte (1952) and modeled by Irving Janis (1972), is narrower: a close-knit group deciding badly [SRC-775] [SRC-776]. Its symptoms, such as pressure on dissenters and an illusion of unanimity, describe hives well. Its causal model was found weakly supported, so /the-hive-mind uses the symptoms as description only [SRC-777].",
"sources": [
"SRC-775",
"SRC-776",
"SRC-777"
]
}
],
"entered": "2026-10-12",
"history": [
{
"date": "2026-10-12",
"event": "Explanation moved here from /the-hive-mind (WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Where the idea comes from)",
"reason": "wording unchanged except as listed: \"so this page uses the symptoms\" → \"so /the-hive-mind uses the symptoms\" (page-relative: \"this page\" named /the-hive-mind)."
}
],
"appearances": [
"/the-hive-mind"
],
"missing_fields": [
"full claim text (entry is summary-only)",
"intervals",
"pinpoint for SRC-775",
"pinpoint for SRC-776",
"pinpoint for SRC-777",
"counter_evidence",
"grade_rationale",
"relation to HSRP-434",
"open_questions"
]
}Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-12). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 9 fields not yet recorded.