HSRP-431

Social influence raising inequality and unpredictability in a cultural market, an example of M5

Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.

(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)

1. Header

Number: HSRP-431
Category: Civilizational Analysis
Grade: PROBABLE
Status: ACTIVE
Entry form: SUMMARY-ONLY the full entry has not yet been recovered into the register
First entered: 2026-10-12
Last revised: 2026-10-12
Register entry: https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes#HSRP-431

2. The claim, in full

Social influence raising inequality and unpredictability in a cultural market, an example of M5

Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-10.

This is a summary-only entry. The text above is the register summary, not the full statement of the claim.

3. What it rests on

In an online music market, the same song could succeed or fail depending on the download counts listeners were shown [SRC-763].

Sources: SRC-763

No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.

4. Sources

SRC-763 · PRIORITY · Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market — Salganik, Matthew J., Dodds, Peter S., & Watts, Duncan J., Science 311(5762):854-856 (2006)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Access status not recorded

Entered 2026-10-12 with BATCH 1 of the /the-hive-mind slimming, from that page's SOURCES entry [13]. https://pdodds.w3.uvm.edu/research/papers/years/2006/salganik2006a.pdf

5. Counter-evidence

No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-12. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.

6. Why this grade

The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.

The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.

7. Correction history

2026-10-12: Explanation moved here from /the-hive-mind (WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers) — wording unchanged except as listed: "in an online music market" → "In an online music market" (capitalised: the span began mid-sentence after an "Example:" label that C4 drops).

8. Related observations

HSRP-427 · WORKING · Six markers (M1 to M6) together point to a hive; no single one settles it, and each turns up in healthy groups too.
Relation: not recorded
HSRP-430 · PROBABLE · The independence condition behind M5, one of the six markers: separate judgments make crowds accurate, while influence narrows estimates and raises confidence without accuracy
Relation: not recorded

9. Where this appears on the site

Content pages that cite this observation inline:

The Programmable Hive Mind
“M5 — PROBABLE”

Pages citing a source this observation rests on: /the-hive-mind.

10. Open questions

Not yet recorded for this observation.

11. Machine block

The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:

{
  "grade": "PROBABLE",
  "status": "ACTIVE",
  "category": "CIV",
  "title": "Social influence raising inequality and unpredictability in a cultural market, an example of M5",
  "entry_form": "summary",
  "note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-10.",
  "n": 431,
  "ref": "HSRP-431",
  "cited_by": [
    "SRC-763"
  ],
  "related": [
    "HSRP-427",
    "HSRP-430"
  ],
  "category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
  "supplement": "027",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "statement": "In an online music market, the same song could succeed or fail depending on the download counts listeners were shown [SRC-763].",
      "sources": [
        "SRC-763"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "entered": "2026-10-12",
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "event": "Explanation moved here from /the-hive-mind (WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers)",
      "reason": "wording unchanged except as listed: \"in an online music market\" → \"In an online music market\" (capitalised: the span began mid-sentence after an \"Example:\" label that C4 drops)."
    }
  ],
  "appearances": [
    "/the-hive-mind"
  ],
  "missing_fields": [
    "full claim text (entry is summary-only)",
    "intervals",
    "pinpoint for SRC-763",
    "counter_evidence",
    "grade_rationale",
    "relation to HSRP-427",
    "relation to HSRP-430",
    "open_questions"
  ]
}

https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes.json

Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-12). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 8 fields not yet recorded.