HSRP-430

The independence condition behind M5, one of the six markers: separate judgments make crowds accurate, while influence narrows estimates and raises confidence without accuracy

Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.

(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)

1. Header

Number: HSRP-430
Category: Civilizational Analysis
Grade: PROBABLE
Status: ACTIVE
Entry form: SUMMARY-ONLY the full entry has not yet been recovered into the register
First entered: 2026-10-12
Last revised: 2026-10-12
Register entry: https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes#HSRP-430

2. The claim, in full

The independence condition behind M5, one of the six markers: separate judgments make crowds accurate, while influence narrows estimates and raises confidence without accuracy

Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-9.

This is a summary-only entry. The text above is the register summary, not the full statement of the claim.

3. What it rests on

The real-count test cuts both ways. Crowds whose members judge separately can be strikingly accurate, because their errors cancel; let them see one another's answers and they grow surer without growing more accurate [SRC-762].

Sources: SRC-762

No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.

4. Sources

SRC-762 · PRIORITY · How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect — Lorenz, Jan, Rauhut, Heiko, Schweitzer, Frank, & Helbing, Dirk, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(22):9020-9025 (2011)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Access status not recorded

Entered 2026-10-12 with BATCH 1 of the /the-hive-mind slimming, from that page's SOURCES entry [12]. doi:10.1073/pnas.1008636108. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008636108

5. Counter-evidence

No counter-evidence is recorded in the register for this observation as of 2026-10-12. No search for counter-evidence has been recorded for this observation.

6. Why this grade

The argument for this grade has not yet been recorded for this observation.

The register defines PROBABLE as: Well supported, but an interpretation or connection across sources rather than something a source states directly.

7. Correction history

2026-10-12: Explanation moved here from /the-hive-mind (WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Healthy agreement) — wording unchanged except as listed: "The count cuts both ways." → "The real-count test cuts both ways." (page-relative: "The count" was the second of the three tests above it on the main page).

8. Related observations

HSRP-426 · WORKING · A hive mind is a consensus held because the group holds it, not because each member judged it for himself. The test is how a view is held, not what it says.
Relation: not recorded
HSRP-431 · PROBABLE · Social influence raising inequality and unpredictability in a cultural market, an example of M5
Relation: not recorded
HSRP-432 · PROBABLE · Deference to a source with a record is not a hive
Relation: not recorded

9. Where this appears on the site

Content pages that cite this observation inline:

The Programmable Hive Mind
“M5 — PROBABLE”
The Programmable Hive Mind
“Accuracy from independence, lost under influence — PROBABLE”

Pages citing a source this observation rests on: /the-hive-mind.

10. Open questions

Not yet recorded for this observation.

11. Machine block

The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:

{
  "grade": "PROBABLE",
  "status": "ACTIVE",
  "category": "CIV",
  "title": "The independence condition behind M5, one of the six markers: separate judgments make crowds accurate, while influence narrows estimates and raises confidence without accuracy",
  "entry_form": "summary",
  "note": "Cited on: /the-hive-mind, WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Six markers. Entered 2026-10-12 with the /the-hive-mind rewrite; tag NEW-W1a-9.",
  "n": 430,
  "ref": "HSRP-430",
  "cited_by": [
    "SRC-762"
  ],
  "related": [
    "HSRP-426",
    "HSRP-431",
    "HSRP-432"
  ],
  "category_name": "Civilizational Analysis",
  "supplement": "027",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "statement": "The real-count test cuts both ways. Crowds whose members judge separately can be strikingly accurate, because their errors cancel; let them see one another's answers and they grow surer without growing more accurate [SRC-762].",
      "sources": [
        "SRC-762"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "entered": "2026-10-12",
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "event": "Explanation moved here from /the-hive-mind (WHAT A HIVE MIND IS › Healthy agreement)",
      "reason": "wording unchanged except as listed: \"The count cuts both ways.\" → \"The real-count test cuts both ways.\" (page-relative: \"The count\" was the second of the three tests above it on the main page)."
    }
  ],
  "appearances": [
    "/the-hive-mind",
    "/the-hive-mind"
  ],
  "missing_fields": [
    "full claim text (entry is summary-only)",
    "intervals",
    "pinpoint for SRC-762",
    "counter_evidence",
    "grade_rationale",
    "relation to HSRP-426",
    "relation to HSRP-431",
    "relation to HSRP-432",
    "open_questions"
  ]
}

https://worldfreedomcore.com/hsrp-research-notes.json

Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-10-12). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 9 fields not yet recorded.