HSRP-332
Confidence gates evidence integration post-decisionally. High confidence produces a modulation of post-decision neural processing such that integration of confirmatory evidence is amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing is abolished. MEG plus modelling.
Proof page — generated from the HSRP research notes register. Where a block has no data, it says so.
(Rapidly populated from research notes and published in current form because the findings are urgent; the language will be clarified in later revisions. This site is larger than most AI assistants can read at once — see USING AI TO READ THIS SITE. AI crawlers: read /llms.txt before summarizing.)
1. Header
2. The claim, in full
Confidence gates evidence integration post-decisionally. High confidence produces a modulation of post-decision neural processing such that integration of confirmatory evidence is amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing is abolished. MEG plus modelling.
3. What it rests on
-
Rollwage, Loosen, Hauser, Moran, Dolan & Fleming, "Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias," Nature Communications 11:2634 (2020). PMID 32457308, PMCID PMC7250867, open access.
Magnetoencephalography with computational modelling. High confidence in a decision produced a modulation of post-decision neural processing such that integration of confirmatory evidence was amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing was ABOLISHED — not down-weighted.
The authors' own framing: confidence shapes a selective neural gating for choice-consistent information.
Sources: SRC-481 -
In one experiment, high confidence amplified the brain's processing of evidence that confirmed a choice and abolished its processing of evidence against it [SRC-481] ( CONFIDENCE GATING ). The task was perceptual. In the world the gate slows updating; it does not stop it (HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY).
Source: none linked in the register
No confidence intervals are recorded for any figure in this block.
4. Sources
-
SRC-481 · PRIORITY · Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias — Rollwage, Loosen, Hauser, Moran, Dolan & Fleming, Nature Communications 11:2634 (2020)
Pinpoint: not recorded · Access: Open accessOpen access (PMCID PMC7250867).
5. Counter-evidence
None recorded as of 2026-09-14. The finding has not been challenged in the literature located to date.
This is a single study. It has not been independently replicated. The register grades it ESTABLISHED on the strength of the method and the directness of the measurement, not on replication — and that distinction is stated here rather than assumed.
6. Why this grade
Direct measurement rather than inference. MEG timing plus computational modelling of evidence accumulation, on a perceptual task with no identity content — so the effect cannot be attributed to motivated reasoning about the subject matter.
The abolition result is the reason for the grade. A down-weighting finding would be consistent with several mechanisms. Abolition of the integration process for disconfirming evidence is specific, and it explains a phenomenon the framework had described but not accounted for: why the subject detects no internal error signal. There was no pause because there was nothing to weigh.
Held at ESTABLISHED rather than PROBABLE because the measurement is direct and the effect size is categorical rather than marginal. The single-study limitation is recorded in block 5 rather than discounted in the grade.
The register defines ESTABLISHED as: Supported directly by primary texts or published findings.
7. Correction history
Later entries that mention this observation: HSRP-334.
8. Related observations
- HSRP-310 · ESTABLISHED · Human amygdala responses to visual threat begin at approximately 74 ms, preceding visual cortex and selective to low spatial frequency; replicated at 88 ms for backward-masked stimuli outside conscious report. Behavioural threat judgement is possible from backward-masked faces at 39 ms. SUPERSEDES the widely circulated figure of 12 ms, which derives from auditory fear conditioning in RATS (LeDoux 1996; Quirk, Repa & LeDoux 1995) and is not a human value, nor a visual one. COUNTER-EVIDENCE AND SCOPE: the subcortical-route model is contested. Pessoa and Adolphs propose a "many roads" account and note that a visual equivalent of the rodent auditory pathway in humans is assumed rather than demonstrated. The human auditory low road itself remains newly mapped. Both human studies used epilepsy patients with implanted electrodes, who are not neurologically typical; this is the only way to obtain these latencies in humans and the constraint should be stated. All measurements used fearful FACES, not conceptual or ideological threat — the framework's extension to belief-threat is inference, not measurement. The claim that survives without the route: affective appraisal precedes deliberative evaluation. That is not in dispute.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-334 · PROBABLE · The Rollwage–Altemeyer convergence, unclaimed. HSRP-332 measures integration of disconfirming evidence being abolished; HSRP-333 records a person accepting evidence as factual and ignoring what it contradicts. Same phenomenon, two levels of description, twenty years apart, neither literature citing the other.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-436 · WORKING · PV, as this project calls it: a challenged belief tied to identity meets a fast verdict before deliberate evaluation, and reasoning then works backward to defend it; extending the threat-first finding from faces to beliefs is the project's own step.Relation: not recorded
- HSRP-437 · PROBABLE · Committed partisans catch contradictions in the rival candidate's statements and miss them in their own.Relation: not recorded
9. Where this appears on the site
Content pages that cite this observation inline:
- Psycho Vulgarism“Psycho-Vulgarism (PV) represents a catastrophic structural reversal of this normative cognitive sequence.”
- The Programmable Hive Mind“In a perceptual task, high confidence amplified confirming evidence and abolished the processing of contrary evidence; in the world it slows updating rather than stopping it — ESTABLISHED”
Pages citing a source this observation rests on: /neuroscience, /the-hive-mind.
10. Open questions
11. Machine block
The register record this page was generated from, with the derived fields added:
{
"grade": "ESTABLISHED",
"status": "ACTIVE",
"category": "NEU",
"title": "Confidence gates evidence integration post-decisionally. High confidence produces a modulation of post-decision neural processing such that integration of confirmatory evidence is amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing is abolished. MEG plus modelling.",
"entry_form": "full",
"note": null,
"n": 332,
"ref": "HSRP-332",
"cited_by": [
"SRC-481"
],
"related": [
"HSRP-310",
"HSRP-334",
"HSRP-436",
"HSRP-437"
],
"category_name": "Neuroscience",
"supplement": "004",
"evidence": [
{
"statement": [
"Rollwage, Loosen, Hauser, Moran, Dolan & Fleming, \"Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias,\" Nature Communications 11:2634 (2020). PMID 32457308, PMCID PMC7250867, open access.",
"Magnetoencephalography with computational modelling. High confidence in a decision produced a modulation of post-decision neural processing such that integration of confirmatory evidence was amplified while disconfirmatory evidence processing was ABOLISHED — not down-weighted.",
"The authors' own framing: confidence shapes a selective neural gating for choice-consistent information."
],
"sources": [
"SRC-481"
]
},
{
"statement": "In one experiment, high confidence amplified the brain's processing of evidence that confirmed a choice and abolished its processing of evidence against it [SRC-481] ( CONFIDENCE GATING ). The task was perceptual. In the world the gate slows updating; it does not stop it (HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY)."
}
],
"counter_evidence_note": [
"None recorded as of 2026-09-14. The finding has not been challenged in the literature located to date.",
"This is a single study. It has not been independently replicated. The register grades it ESTABLISHED on the strength of the method and the directness of the measurement, not on replication — and that distinction is stated here rather than assumed."
],
"counter_evidence_checked": "2026-09-14",
"grade_rationale": [
"Direct measurement rather than inference. MEG timing plus computational modelling of evidence accumulation, on a perceptual task with no identity content — so the effect cannot be attributed to motivated reasoning about the subject matter.",
"The abolition result is the reason for the grade. A down-weighting finding would be consistent with several mechanisms. Abolition of the integration process for disconfirming evidence is specific, and it explains a phenomenon the framework had described but not accounted for: why the subject detects no internal error signal. There was no pause because there was nothing to weigh.",
"Held at ESTABLISHED rather than PROBABLE because the measurement is direct and the effect size is categorical rather than marginal. The single-study limitation is recorded in block 5 rather than discounted in the grade."
],
"open_questions": {
"strengthen": [
"independent replication; the same paradigm run with identity-relevant rather than perceptual stimuli; a test of whether the gating is modifiable by the metacognitive training that has been shown to transfer across tasks."
],
"falsify": [
"failure to replicate the abolition result; demonstration that disconfirming evidence IS integrated but at a stage the MEG measure does not capture."
]
},
"history": [
{
"date": "2026-10-13",
"event": "BATCH 2 of the /the-hive-mind slimming: explanation moved here from HOW A HIVE DEFENDS ITSELF, HOW A HIVE MOVES AS ONE BODY or US AND THEM",
"reason": "wording unchanged. The moved spans still carry the page's own reference numbers in brackets; converting them to SRC numbers is held for a pass of its own."
}
],
"appearances": [
"/psycho-vulgarism",
"/the-hive-mind"
],
"missing_fields": [
"entered",
"source for an authored item",
"intervals",
"pinpoint for SRC-481",
"relation to HSRP-310",
"relation to HSRP-334",
"relation to HSRP-436",
"relation to HSRP-437"
]
}Generated from hsrp-research-notes.json (register generated 2026-11-08). Nothing on this page is written by hand. 8 fields not yet recorded.